In a recent installment of The Zogby Report podcast, polling experts John and Jeremy Zogby, from the market research company and political polling service John Zogby Strategies, explored the unique challenges surrounding the 2024 presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. The latest polls show both candidates stuck in a 47% tie, making this one of the tightest elections in recent memory.
Despite Harris experiencing a slight rise in support following the Democratic convention and her debate appearances, the race remains exceedingly close. Particularly in swing states, the gap between the two candidates often falls within the margin of error, leaving no clear leader. According to the Zogbys, this statistical deadlock underscores just how difficult it is to predict the outcome of such a tightly contested race.
The analysts questioned whether the race has shifted meaningfully at all. While slight variations in polling may suggest one candidate is gaining ground, the Zogbys urged caution, as the media tends to overemphasize these small movements. In reality, neither candidate has managed to secure a significant advantage.
Adding to the uncertainty is the looming possibility of an unforeseen “black swan” event that could dramatically alter the election landscape. The Zogbys noted that global developments—such as the ongoing war in Ukraine, rising tensions in the Middle East, or changes in the U.S. economy due to Federal Reserve policies—could influence undecided voters in the final days.
With so many factors still in play, the Zogbys advised holding off on predictions. As previous elections have shown, last-minute shifts in voter behavior and unexpected events could still change the race’s trajectory. For now, the 2024 election remains wide open.
